It’s officially that time of year — when your social media timeline is flooded with posts about 0-2 starts and your team’s dwindling chances of making the playoffs.
For the uninitiated, the outlook is bleak. Since 2015, fewer than 11% of NFL teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-2.
However, that number is missing context in that it includes an awful lot of awful teams. For example, this year’s Carolina Panthers and New York Giants will soon be a part of that stat, and they didn’t have high expectations heading into the season.
So, we’re going to focus on the somewhat surprising 0-2 starts to see how dire the situation really is. Which of these teams should be panicking? How likely are they to make the playoffs at this point? Or should they be looking forward to next year’s NFL Draft? These are the questions I will try to answer using my NFL projection model.
GO DEEPER
NFL playoff projections 2024: Ravens, Bengals in trouble at 0-2
Playoff hopes for the Ravens didn’t seem grim after losing on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs by a toenail, but after blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead at home to the Las Vegas Raiders, the 2023 AFC runners-up have seen their playoff odds plummet from 78% to start the season to 41%.
Last year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson, has been solid, but the team’s main issue right now is scoring chance efficiency. I define a scoring chance as any play inside the opponent’s 40-yard line, as this is when teams are in a realistic range for points, whether by field goal or touchdown. Through two games, Jackson ranks 29th in EPA/dropback and 26th in dropback success rate during scoring opportunities among qualified quarterbacks, according to TruMedia. Last year, Jackson ranked 14th and 16th respectively. We’re still dealing with a small sample and considering the Ravens were a couple of plays away from being 2-0, I don’t think there is reason to panic just yet.
GO DEEPER
NFL Power Rankings Week 3: Cowboys, Ravens in trouble? Are Saints, Vikings for real?
That said, I am concerned about the defense. Through two weeks, the Ravens have been a bottom-10 defense against the pass, including surrendering the highest rate of 10-plus-yard passing plays. Part of that is playing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on the road, but that’s not the start you wanted after losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald and promoting Zach Orr.
Similarly to their aforementioned AFC North rival, the Bengals have seen a large drop in playoff odds after their 0-2 start to the season. Before the season, the Bengals were projected to make the playoffs 73% of the time. That number is now 44%.
Cincy fans need to RELAX.
This is what you guys do. Under Zach Taylor, yall are 1-11 the first 2 weeks of season.
Plus, Joe Burrow looks much better. If he stays healthy….dont freak out!
New episode of Scoop City👇
🎧 https://t.co/BiR1Neg2CF
📺 https://t.co/6Ls6PCpYjK pic.twitter.com/ZabNgs3qbe— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) September 17, 2024
The primary reason for the Bengals’ drop in playoff odds is their home loss to the New England Patriots in Week 1. That would be concerning, except the Bengals always seem to struggle in Week 1. They also almost pulled off an upset on the road in Kansas City. So, am I worried about them? Not yet. They’ve been without wide receiver Tee Higgins to start the season, and his return should boost quarterback Joe Burrow’s efficiency.
I’m not really a believer in the defense despite its performance against Mahomes — the Bengals have his number, I guess — but I haven’t seen anything that makes me want to change my mind
On the bright side for the Bengals, three of their next four opponents are the Washington Commanders, Panthers, and Giants. A home showdown with the Ravens will have huge playoff implications in Week 5, but the schedule works in their favor to get back on track pretty quickly after a poor start.
The Colts started the season with just a 26% chance to make the playoffs, and after an 0-2 start, including a humbling loss to a Malik Willis-led Packers team, the Colts now have a mere 8% chance to make the playoffs.
Anthony Richardson has had a tough start to his sophomore season, as he’s only completed 49.1% of his passes. There is some context needed as he’s tied for third in percentage of attempts that have gone 20 yards downfield, and the Colts had a handful of drops Sunday, but no matter how you spin it, completing less than 50% of your passes isn’t going to work in the NFL.
That all said, the offense isn’t even my main concern. It’s the defense.
Through two weeks, the defense is giving up more five yards per carry on the ground, and that includes a full game against a non-existent passing offense. Injuries are starting to pile up on that side of the ball, too. My model currently projects the Colts to have the fourth-worst defense, and that’s not a recipe to overcome an 0-2 start.
GO DEEPER
QB stock report, Week 3: Kyler Murray surges into top 10; Sam Darnold too low?
Where they can find hope is in their schedule. It’s not too bad over the next month. Home games against the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers are certainly winnable, but they’ll need to at least split road trips to Jacksonville and Tennessee to keep their heads above water. After that, they start a stretch of vs. Miami, at Houston, at Minnesota, vs. Buffalo, at New York Jets, vs. Lions. Stacking some wins in the next four week is vital.
The Rams couldn’t have had a worse start to the season. Not only are they 0-2, but they’ve been decimated by injuries. Their tattered roster and winless start have compounded into just a 9% chance to make the playoffs after starting the season at 45%. There aren’t many teams in the NFL that would be able to survive this level of injuries across the offense, let alone one with a so-so defense.
Frankly, it is tough to project the Rams because of the injuries and the guess work involved with when players will return. A Week 6 bye might do them some favors, but there aren’t many games on the schedule where the Rams will be clear favorites. My model currently has the most likely record for the Rams as 6-11.
If you would have asked me about the Jaguars through the first half of Week 1, I’d have told I thought they had a chance to win the AFC South. Unfortunately, since halftime against the Dolphins, the Jaguars have been absolutely dreadful on offense. The poor play has caused their playoff odds to drop from 40% to 19%.
Am I worried? Yes. The offense looks broken. I’m not sure what it is, but when you look at the New Orleans Saints under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and the Minnesota Vikings with Sam Darnold, you wonder why the Jaguars haven’t been able to get more out of their offense with Trevor Lawrence. This will be the second year in a row the Jaguars offense has underwhelmed. The Jaguars have actually lost Lawrence’s last seven starts.
Either the coaching staff needs a change, or you need to start thinking about a quarterback change, and I’m not ready to give up on Lawrence.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Road trips to Buffalo and Houston over the next two weeks make an 0-4 start a real possibility, and the schedule doesn’t let up too often before their Week 12 bye. The Jaguars can still salvage the season, but they’ll need to win one, if not both, of their next two games to stay alive. I’m not betting on it.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Michael Owens / Getty Images)
